So it’s finally here. The Cheltenham Festival. Four days, 27 races and god knows how many horses. In anticipation, here is my entirely serious guide to profiting from the biggest week of the jumping calendar.
DON’T BET IN EVERY RACESince when have you known anything about Irish bumper form? You don’t. And you never will. So what in the good name of Poseidon are you doing having a pony each way on some animal because it ‘finished strongly in a good race at Gowran Park’? Yes, Willie Mullins does very well in the Champion Bumper, but he also appears to have entered three quarters of the field. It’s also a prime hunting ground for those with acute hearing. You know the types, the ones who have definitely heard a whisper or ten. It’s like being friends with the production crew on The Old Grey Whistle Test. “This 33/1 shot is the best horse in the yard” they say. Beating all comers on the gallops I’m told. Of course it is, the rest of his stablemates are fresh from the carousel. How many Hunter Chases have you watched this season? And I mean out of choice, not because the race you had a bet in was delayed for twenty minutes. The Cross Country? Are you mad? Actually, I think the Cross Country is a fantastic betting medium. Four places in a field where 80% have got no chance? Yes please. Anyway, give yourself a break every now and then. It’s not a competition (Well, it sort of is.)
VARY YOUR APPROACHOf course, most people do want an interest in every race, which is understandable, for the Festival comes but once a year (even though it feels like it happens every week given how much it’s mentioned). But remember you don’t have to back the winner to make a penny or two. There are eighteen horses in Tuesday’s Supreme Novices Hurdle. There are three places on offer on Betfair. Lay one or two to finish out of the frame. Think Irving is a flat track bully? He won’t get up the hill for sure. Take him on. What has Vautour beat exactly? Nothing. Oppose him. Gilgamboa? Come on Enda, the Cross Country isn’t til Wednesday. Press the pink button. Don’t forget, you don’t have to back one horse. Or two. Dutch half the field if you like. Profit is profit and all that.
FORGET WHAT YOU THOUGHT TWO WEEKS AGOAnte post betting is for optimists and dreamers. All those complaining when The Tullow Tank was ruled out / Sprinter Sacre booked the week off / Cue Card pulled up lame shouldn’t be playing the long range guessing game if they can’t take the hit. The problem is it’s quite easy to get a seed of an idea in your head and let it grow into a giant almighty oak tree, obscuring your vision and blinding you to the obvious right in front of your nose. It’s hard enough to pick a Cheltenham winner as they circle at the start, never mind weeks in advance. Just because you’ve been telling everyone within earshot that ‘The Fly’ is bombproof regardless of his age doesn’t mean you have to smash into him on the day out of sheer blinkered loyalty. Feel free to change your mind right up until the last minute, but fully expect everyone to secretly hate you when you tell them what you did as Walsh comes back dejected, bronze medal in hand.
GO EXOTIC“Bloody hell, I’ve tipped the tricast!” is a regularly heard phrase from punters up and down the land. Nevermind the fact you haven’t had a tricast since Schweppes backed out of sponsorship, it’s worth mentioning nonetheless, especially during Cheltenham week. Treat yourself, stick those six bottom weights in the Coral Cup in a CTC and wait for the cash to roll in. Placepots are even better. I’ve found the best strategy is to perm hundreds of lines on the Tuesday, watch as all the fancied runners hit the frame, tot up your returns to find you’ve lost half your money, do the same on Wednesday, go out in the Coral Cup, scale down on the Thursday, miss out in the Byrne Group Plate after your pulled out two horses to keep the stake down, practically give up on the Friday after spending two hours debating whether the Triumph Hurdle is a four place race on the Tote but still have one anyway and inevitably crash out in the Foxhunters before realising you’ve done nearly four hundred quid in pool bets. Enjoy
NO IFS, NO BUTS, NO MAYBESHorses don’t ‘Get Away’ with anything at the Festival. Annie Power might stay. She probably will. But will she stay stronger than the proven three mile sloggers? Probably not. Can Trio D’Alene win a Gold Cup with Tony on his back? Maybe. But is he classy enough to out point his rivals despite never having run in a Graded chase? Doubtful. The point I’m making is the Festival crowns champions. It doesn’t reward wishy washy perhaps merchants. Yeh, maybe in the handicaps a horse can outjump his rivals and get away with a harsh mark, but even then there will be something who jumps just as well and is six pounds better off on your heels. In the Championship events? There’s no room for error there my friend. If you don’t stay, can’t jump or haven’t had the right preparation you might as well not bother.
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF GENEROUS OFFERSBillions will be staked this week and everyone is queuing up to offer a warm, safe place for your money. Some of them might seem too good to be true. You know why? Because they are! They look like great offers because they genuinely are great offers. The more cash you’ve got in your account, the more you’re going to bet on the weeks racing. Hell, why not have a bit of a barter? You’ve done it down the fishmongers and when you bought your second hand Corsa, have a go with a bookie. Ask for a third of the odds, see if you can get your cash back when your horse falls at the second last and are they absolutely positively sure it’s not first five in the Triumph Hurdle? I’m sure it used to be…
TAKE NOTE OF TRENDSTrends are there to tell you exactly what type of horse you’re looking for to win each race. Borderline useless most of the time, invaluable in the déjà vu racing world of the Cheltenham Festival. Trainers are creatures of habit (Although not all of them know the time of day. How they keep to these habits without a rudimentary grasp on the forces powering our lives I do not know) and they will aim the same type of horse at the same race year in, year out. The RSA Chase always goes to a horse who has gone through so much he’s starting to have flashbacks in his sleep. Battle hardened doesn’t even begin to describe the rol call of my favourite race of the festival. The Gold Cup is not won by old horses, especially old horses who have been beaten left right and centre all season. The ‘Four Miler’ has turned into a ‘Best Horse Wins’ event since they changed the penalty system. Class will out and all that. Of course, anyone quoting stats about how ‘the favourite has an awful record’ in this race or such incidental claptrap should be politely asked to leave.
IGNORE ALL THIS AND GO WITH YOUR GUTSurely you don’t need my advice to profit in a garden of such earthly delights? In all seriousness, attack the middle distance novice hurdle events and the staying races with gusto. It’s a lot easier to weed out the non-stayers in the likes of the Gold Cup, the RSA, the World Hurdle etc and the justnotgoodenoughs in the Supreme, Neptune and the Albert Bartlett than it is to be splitting hairs in handicaps or working out which of the equally matched animals in the Champion Hurdle etc is going to put their head in front this year. Cheltenham form can never be underestimated, regardless of the actually quality of the form itself, and you’d be amazed by how much a horse will learn from spinning round Prestbury Park in preparation for a competitive event. Just go with your gut, trust your instincts, don’t eat yellow snow and lay Big Bucks. Probably.
See you at the end of the tunnel, rich, exhausted and satisfied.
